Estimation of Short-Time Forecast for Covid-19 Outbreak in India: State-Wise Prediction and Analysis
Abstract
Covid-19 pandemic is of major concern that largely impacts the human and growth of respective countries. Countries like India also tried their best to manage this Covid outbreak situation through lockdown and handle its growth through strict relaxation using zonal distribution strategy. An urge of proper estimation for this outbreak is required, which can be beneficial in arrangement of proper healthcare facilities in different states of the country. India has wide diversity between its states. The effect of temperature and dense population have been two key parameters that have been poorly studied with respect to each state. In this paper, we tried to forecast the number of Covid-19 cases (8 Jan 2020 to 25 April 2020) using Kalman filter at state and national levels to generate various trends and patterns. Our analysis has been evaluated on four classification of states: most affected, moderate affected, least affected and pandemic free states. The results have been collected on vulnerable temperature parameters (historical and forecast data) of each state. The national level estimates are further compared with other countries like United States of America, Spain, France, Italy and Germany through confirmed, recovered and death cases. In the current lockdown situation our estimation shows that India should expect as many as 60,140 cases by May 24, 2020. The trends achieved shows that India has been found to be one of the beneficiaries of lockdown decisions but failed at some places in its regions due to social activities, huge dense population and temperature variation. This study will be beneficial for different state level bodies to manage various health care resources between its states or can support intra-state and can start their administrative functionality accordingly.
Author
Kayhan Zrar Ghafoor
Publisher
Sustainable Smart Cities (Springer)
ISSN
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